Three separate reports published this week have each reached the same conclusion, says Jonathan Portes of the UK in a Changing Europe
Via Graham Watson
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Graham Watson's curator insight,
November 29, 2018 2:43 AM
Brexit forecasts again, with the Guardian article suggesting that there are some people who think that they apocalyptic forecasts for 'no deal' are too extreme.
This poses interesting questions: what is the Bank supposed to do if the forecasts actually predict that? They lose credibility by peddling another version of events? But might it be better than instead of giving headline figures they offer a range of outcomes for each scenario? That might deflect some of the criticism.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
November 28, 2018 8:11 AM
The Brexit fun continues - the government has released Treasury forecasts which predict that the "UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan" but that "a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit".
However, Eurosceptics are arguing that these forecasts ignore the likely impact of new trade deals - something which, though trumpeted as the panacea to the UK's economic ills, are unlikely to be as significant as the continued trade with the EU.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
September 28, 2018 2:22 AM
I like the concept of Brexit fatigue: I'm certainly feeling it. |
Graham Watson's curator insight,
November 29, 2018 4:03 AM
Larry Elliott on the Bank of England's post-Brexit scenarios - he suggests that the inaccuracy of previous forecasts, notably before the 2016 referendum, means that it will be easy to ignore the latest forecasts.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
November 28, 2018 11:53 AM
Ding, ding: Brexit time.
And would you believe it? The Bank of England also thinks that UK GDP is likely to decline by as much as 8% in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit.
What will Sir Bill Cash say?
Graham Watson's curator insight,
November 27, 2018 2:25 AM
More excellent Brexit news, this time published by the independent think tank The UK in a Changing Europe. It posits that the Brexit deal could see Britain be 5.5% poorer after a decade post-Brexit, as well as a significant effect upon the public finances.
The fun never stops. |
I've not scooped anything by Jonathan Portes for a while, and this is a typical trenchant comment piece in the Guardian, giving a blunt assessment of Britain's post-Brexit future.
The headline, alas, rather gives the game away. If you didn't know already.