Economics in Education

...but the potential for trouble in the Eurozone, with a leading German expert warning that there are underlying factors in Italy and to a lesser extent in other economies that might precipitate a crisis.

Larry Elliott on the Bank of England's post-Brexit scenarios - he suggests that the inaccuracy of previous forecasts, notably before the 2016 referendum, means that it will be easy to ignore the latest forecasts.

Ding, ding: Brexit time. 

And would you believe it? The Bank of England also thinks that UK GDP is likely to decline by as much as 8% in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit. 

What will Sir Bill Cash say?

I've not scooped anything by Jonathan Portes for a while, and this is a typical trenchant comment piece in the Guardian, giving a blunt assessment of Britain's post-Brexit future.

The headline, alas, rather gives the game away. If you didn't know already.

Brexit forecasts again, with the Guardian article suggesting that there are some people who think that they apocalyptic forecasts for 'no deal' are too extreme. 

This poses interesting questions: what is the Bank supposed to do if the forecasts actually predict that? They lose credibility by peddling another version of events? But might it be better than instead of giving headline figures they offer a range of outcomes for each scenario? That might deflect some of the criticism.

The Brexit fun continues - the government has released Treasury forecasts which predict that the "UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan" but that "a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit".

However, Eurosceptics are arguing that these forecasts ignore the likely impact of new trade deals - something which, though trumpeted as the panacea to the UK's economic ills, are unlikely to be as significant as the continued trade with the EU.