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What’s the larger lesson? It turns out that professional athletes over-generalize from their most recent actions and outcomes. They modify their behavior based on the result of a single shot, even though the success of the shot was shaped by unpredictable forces (a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo, etc.) and depended on situational details that are unlikely to be repeated. (Perhaps the defender was momentarily distracted, or failed to run around the screen.) As the scientists note, “The behavior of basketball players shows the limitations of learning from reinforcement, especially in a complex environment such as a basketball game.”
