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Super Forecasting
So much of what we are taught or think we know is wrong. LIstening to Super Forecasting after seeing it as the book of the week on Fareed Zakaria's GPS last Sunday I know the folly of our untested ways. The HiPPO (Highest Paid Person's Opinion) Syndrome drives way too many marketing, sales and business decisions.
Super Forecasting was just discussing how WRONG medicine was until just recently. Thankfully bleeding is out of favor, but quakes with strong opinions ruled for a long time.
The web can be like that too. Another favorite point is the longer our forecast look into the future the worse they become. Super Forecasting discusses the weather as a massively non-linear system capable of being changed by a butterfly's wings.
The web is non-linear too. The web's non-linearity is why I like to compare it to weather. Systems brew up, move across the plains and die down. Anyone who tells you they KNOW anything about the web is trying to sell you something.
What we know after making more than $30M online is weather happens NOW. Yes we can forecast or predict, but the only truth is NOW and to the extent we say or act otherwise we are fooling ourselves, our clients and the next generation of web developers and startups..
The next generation of web developers and startups are going to use algorithms like we use CSS and HTML now. They will be NOWISTS and treat the web as what it is - a living almost sentient thing capable of turning on a dime and throwing a tornado at you faster than you can say the word tornado :). Marty
Book site
http://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/
Amazon (with a small Cure Cancer donation if you buy the book after clicking on this link)
http://bit.ly/Super-Forecasting-on-Amazon
